First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp. has flagged the potential for a “dreaded re-escalation scenario” in the Middle East, warning that a collapse in US-Iran ceasefire talks would reinforce macro risks that the current ceasefire is meant to alleviate, according to Philstar Biz.
The brokerage’s assessment comes as the United States and Israel appear at odds over how to manage the Middle East conflict, with a nebulous 60-day negotiation period underway to flesh out a durable ceasefire deal between Washington and Tehran. First Metro Securities argued that any failure to reach a lasting agreement could trigger renewed instability that impacts global markets.
The report underscores the fragile nature of the current geopolitical landscape, where investors have priced in hopes of de-escalation. A breakdown in talks, the brokerage said, would likely lead to higher risk premiums across asset classes, reversing the relief seen since the ceasefire framework was announced.