The fertilizer shortage caused by the Persian Gulf war will start showing up in crops by 2027, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization said. In their Agricultural Outlook for 2026 to 2035, the two organizations warned that increased energy prices and reduced fertilizer availability could lead to significant impacts on global harvests, as reported by BusinessWorld.
The crisis stems from disruptions in fertilizer supply chains triggered by the conflict, which have driven up energy costs and reduced the availability of key inputs like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The OECD and FAO note that these constraints will begin to manifest in lower crop yields and reduced agricultural productivity by 2027, particularly in regions heavily dependent on imported fertilizers.
The report warns that the impact could exacerbate food insecurity and price volatility in the coming years, as global agricultural markets adjust to tighter supplies. The organizations urged policymakers to invest in fertilizer efficiency and alternative production methods to mitigate the long-term effects on global food systems.